Jake Shields vs Hector Lombard Betting Odds, Prediction and Analysis


Photo Credit: FOXSports

Ok so if you’re reading this I assume you’re looking for the most profitable and secure play this Saturday at UFC 171 and that’s exactly what we’re going to give you.

Here at FightStarMMA we’re not going to just give you betting predictions for every fight because the truth of the matter is that some fights just aren’t even remotely close to predictable.

So what we want to try to do is pick that one fight out of the whole card that we see as the most profitable and go ahead and share it with you.

Now Jake Shields vs Hector Lombard has all the makings of a profitable bet and I’ll tell you why I believe the books got this one wrong inside.. come on in, we got your back!

Jake Shields vs Hector Lombard Betting Prediction and Analysis

Ok let’s get this straight, this fight is not a lock pick just for the fact that Hector Lombard posses crazy explosion and KO power, which means he can end this fight at any time.

But the thing is that Jake Shields is actually the more proven and intelligent fighter, and he should be the favorite coming into this fight.

The books got the betting odds for this fight at around +191 for Jake Shields and -200 for Hector Lombard.

With that said Jake Shields is the underdog and their may be some real money to be made with him, especially if you throw down a little on a decision win in favor of Jake Shields. (the props haven’t opened up yet but well update as soon as they do.)

Let’s start off with analyzing Jake Shields recent split decision victory over a guy that his similar attributes, height, and style as Hector Lombard, Tyrone Woodley. (He will also be fighting at UFC 171 against Carlos Condit, but let’s stay on topic here.)

Jake Shields vs Tyrone Woodley Full Fight Video

Video Credit: UFC/Zuffa

Talk about a boring fight, but the point of this video was to show how Jake Shields was able to neutralize an explosive hitter in Tyrone Woodley who has some similarities to Hector Lombard.

Not once was Shields able to take Woodley down (who has an extensive wrestling background) but he constantly applied pressure and kept him clinched and was able to squeeze a split decision win. (hardly deserved it, I know)

On their feet, Jake Shields will be at a big disadvantage against the power and explosive striker Hector Lombard, but if he comes in with a game plan which he already stated he has, look for Shields to upset the books big time and for us to cash in!

I mean as impressive as Lombard has looked in his recent wins, you can’t scratch out the fact that he’s lost decisions to both Yushin Okami and Tim Boetsch. (Both fights were at middleweight so Lombard was facing much bigger opponents, but Shields is no small welterweight.)

Like I said this one is a risk because whenever you’re betting against a guy with knock out power like Hector Lombard, you don’t want to go big on this.

But the point is I believe the books are slipping and underrating Jake Shields and his ability to win fights against tough competition, I mean this is the same guy that’s beat names like Dan Henderson, Robbie Lawler, Carlos Condit and more.

Now those wins were awhile back but he’s the type of guy that goes in there with a game plan and usually does a good job executing it. I just don’t see him playing Lombard’s game and sooner or later he will wear him down and take over the fight.

One thing Lombard does have in his favor is that this is a 3 round fight, and if it was 5 rounds it would favor Shields who tends to put it on his opponents late while Lombard can fade in the later rounds due to his high motor pace.

Ok now let’s take a look at Hector Lombard vs Yushin Okami who is primarily a grappler with not much explosive or athletic abilities (similar to Jake Shields)

Hector Lombard vs Yushin Okami Full Fight Video

Now some notes to take from that fight:

Okami is 6’2 so is a much taller and bigger opponent than Jake Shields.

Notice how Lombard had Okami hurt in the 3rd round but wasn’t able to capitalize because he was tiring.

From the looks of it, Jake Shields is going to have a hard time taking Lombard down who has a great center of balance and a solid base of judo.

But I think this is that one fight that you have to take advantage of the books underrating Jake Shields and his ability to execute game plans, even if they’re boring,  and win fights.

He’s the same guy that gave GSP a hell of a fight and even won some rounds.

Lombard shouldn’t be able to finish Shields who has a solid chin, and I expect Jake to grind out a decision win.

Remember take this fight lightly, it’s not one you want to put a lot into, well have another analysis of the UFC 171 card coming soon so stay tuned!



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